The Green Zone

And Davante Adams

I don’t hear the “green zone” that often, but it comes up from time to time. If you don’t know, the RedZone is a TV show that flips between live NFL games to show you scoring plays and opportunities while the Green Zone is a military movie from 2010 starring Matt Damon that I never saw but heard is okay.

Oops, let me restart.

The red zone is the final 20 yards of a football field where it is said a drive is likely to end in a touchdown (or field goal) while the green zone is the final x yards of a football field where a play is likely to end in a touchdown.

Why is this important? Because fantasy writers/analysts/managers will cite red zone opportunities as a proxy for scoring opportunities. However, just because a drive is likely to score doesn’t mean a singular play is likely to score. Let’s look into the numbers.

For the 2025 season, there have been 1,265 drives that have entered the red zone with 728 of those ending in a touchdown. In other words, 57.5% of red zone drives end up reaching the endzone. This varies a little from year to year, but - to be broad - we can say scoring a touchdown is a little better than a coin flip when being in the red zone. So, when finding the “x” yardline for the green zone, we should be shooting for a ~50% chance of scoring.

For passing/receiving, let’s first look at targets in the red zone. This season, there has been 1,527 pass attempts in the red zone with 410 finding pay dirt which is a 26.9% conversion rate. Not quite a coin flip. If we use the 10-yard line, we find 287 out of 697 pass attempts have gone for touchdowns, or a 41.2% conversion rate. That is close to a coin flip. (This also means that pass attempts from the 11-20 yard lines only convert at a 14.8% rate.)

We can do the same for rushing. From the 11-20 yard lines only 36 of 814 carries have gone for a touchdown (a 4.4% conversion rate). From the 5-10 yard lines, 52 of 327 carries have scored (a 15.9% conversion rate). Then, from inside the five (1-4), 199 of 465 carries have crossed the goal line (a 42.8% conversion rate).

So, a target within the 10 yard line has almost a 50% chance of scoring while a rush attempt within the 4 yard line has almost a 50% chance of scoring. This is my defined green zone. Now, I do not expect this term to take off nor do I expect there to be a consensus on the definition nor do I really want that to happen, but I do think comparing redzone targets/rushes isn’t very useful. Let’s look at some green zone opportunities.

For running backs, Derrick Henry paces the league with 19 carries inside the five (or within the four). He has only scored 6 touchdowns, and you can say that he should be expected to have more touchdowns. However, there is a tricky thing to remember when looking at a stat like this - being unsuccessful will artificially inflate your opportunities. For example, let’s look at the Ravens-Jets game two weeks ago. In the third quarter, Henry had three straight green zone carries with the third ending up a touchdown. So, if he converted on his first chance, he would be 6 for 17 instead of 6 for 19 which doesn’t change how many fantasy points he scored. Just a tip when looking for regression.

On the receiving side, Dallas Goedert started the year strong setting his season record in touchdowns in only 7 games. In the past 4 games, he has 0 touchdowns (0 green zone targets and has averaged less than 30 ypg). Now, if you had looked at his green zone stats, you would have seen he was 5-for-5 in converting green zone targets into touchdowns and was due for regression. On the flip side, you could look to buy low on CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson who are 0-5 and 1-5 in converting green zone targets. Of course, the same caveats apply, and there are a bunch of people you could say are due for regression.

What I find most interesting, though, is who has gotten the most green zone targets - Davante Adams. Adams leads the NFL with 20 targets in the green zone (second is Rashee Rice with 13 which iself is crazy given he missed the start of the season). It is fairly well known that the Rams have been spamming Stafford-Adams throws at the goal line, but how crazy is it to have 20 green zone targets? Last year, Ja’Marr Chase led the NFL with 17 green zone targets (in 17 games, Adams has played 12 so far). In the 21st century, the only other player to hit 20 green targets is Randy Moss. In his record-setting season with Brady and the Patriots, he had 20 targets in the green zone. Also, in 2002, he got 21 green zone targets (and only converted 2!). This is in comparison to Adams’s 11 touchdowns this year inside the green zone. The only other player to have more than 10 green zone touchdowns in a season this century is Davante Adams himself in 2020 with 13.